Many firsts were achieved on the day of the assault crossing.
It was the first time the armed forces operated with everything "on" (radars, comms equipment and sensors) at the same time (and already the friction was beginning to show).
It was the first time the soldiers had crossed into a foreign country without getting their passports stamped.
It was the first time the Motorised Infantry battalion travelled with full fuel, full combat load of ammo and full ballistic protection (including hard plates for LBV) and with a pair of Apache attack helicopters flying top cover, wall-to-wall rockets and Hellfire missiles.
It was clear to even the least defence-aware citizen soldier in the battalion that the shit had hit the fan, the button had been pressed and the balloon had gone up. This was it.
The crossing unfolded unexpectedly well with no opposition encountered. The Ops cell in the Division Strike Centre was cheered by the speed of movement, aided by the new 70-tonne capable waterjet-propelled landing craft that helped the Army walk on water.
But no plan survives first contact with the enemy. And this age-old mantra replayed itself in the minds of some DSC staff officers as the operation gained traction exactly as it had been tried out a gazillion times during war games.
The Commando team sent across to secure the landing point reported that the only opposition they encountered comprised two patrol cars from the state police, with three policemen and one policewoman slouched against their cars, arms crossed and firearms holstered. They showed up at the landing point almost on cue, like they knew how the scenario would be played out so predictably.
As the Commandos radioed back for instructions in this unscripted shoot/don't shoot situation, the police kept a watchful eye on the intruders but stayed their ground.
It was have been so easy to end the stalemate. Two shots each, double tap, right in the head for a brain stem kill and they would all be dead before their bodies slumped to the ground.
But the DSC had other ideas. What had failed at a state-to-state, grand strategic level would now be played out (successfully) at the tactical level of small unit operations- the delicate art of negotiation.
A Commando officer stepped forward, head to toe the atypical special forces operative with all the gear one would expect for a hot-war situation, covered by intense-looking members of the landing team who continued to play soldier even as the police maintained a look of absolute nonchalance, disinterest and pity as the soldier boys did their thing.
The DSC was told the state police would not interfere with the military operation. But as the state had not been cleared of civilians, they were duty bound to ensure civilian safety on roads and in residential areas. On this point, the police would not budge.
And so, Day 1 of the operation saw an uneasy, indeed unusual and unexpected armistice between the invaders and the state police in the area of operations.
When the convoy was ready to move, it travelled in combat march order on the highway with a ridiculous front scout comprising one state police car whose blue and red strobes on the light bar blinked energetically and incessantly. Hazard lights on, sirens blaring at regular intervals and with windows wound down for shouted instructions to the curious motorist who stopped or slowed down to watch the convoy, the police car did a stellar job clearing the road ahead of civilian traffic.
Officers watching imagery from the mini UAV that accompanied the convoy would later comment the police car looked like a sheep dog herding the mass of civilian traffic away from the convoy's line of march.
Overhead, the Apaches continued their elliptical orbit from front to rear of the convoy; the steady, onward movement of their racetrack flight path broadcasting to all interested observers the general line of advance of the war machines they sheltered.
The breakaway, when it came, was unannounced and unexpected and the police officers in the lead vehicle took some time to notice that the lead 8x8 in the convoy had halted.
As the cops alighted from their vehicle, a group of soldiers could be seen giving their attention to the metal central road divider. A tool of some sort (circular saw) produced a shower of sparks and seconds later, the sound of tortured metal being chewed down by the power tool was heard by the police officers.
The soldiers in the leading 8x8 had opened their hatches and had binoculars trained on the police car. In front of their hatch, the overhead weapon system trained left to right in a regular rhythm that left observers no doubt that the gun was manned, watchful and ready to fire. With the barrier shorn down, soldiers were seen moving a broken piece of divider away, like ants carrying away a twig.
One by one, the 8x8s gunned their idle engines into life and moved off, each 8x8 emitting a tell-tale puff of smoke down the line as each driver brought their vehicle to Drive mode and engines strained to get the stationary infantry carrier vehicles moving again. The 8x8s disappeared on the laterite road that led into a sprawling plantation whose cash crops were planted some 4 metres apart.
Soon, the estate had swallowed the length of the convoy and the second state police car (it brought up the rear) made its appearance, light bar winking and signal light flashing as it attempted to follow the battalion. Even at that distance, one did not need subtitles to decipher the game of charades played between the soldiers who manned the crossing point and the second police car.
Assault rifles held up at shoulder level pointing at the car with an outstretched palm meant: Stop immediately or we fire.
That same outstretched palm moving vigorously into motion, shooeing the car away could only mean: Stay away.
The soldiers and one 8x8 stayed at the head of the dirt road as the battalion wound its way north, with the two Apaches tethered to the convoy maintaining their faithful aerial watch.
The combat route was open for business.
When a professional audience studies war games such as Forging Sabre, they will look beyond the scenario scripted and kinetic operations executed.
At the level of grand strategy, several questions may spring to mind:
1. Will Singapore's leadership have the guts to pull the trigger for the scenario played out?
2. Will the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) be ready and able to execute the deed?
3. How realistic are the war games when applied in the projected area of operations (AO)?
With the amount of resources that have been invested in our defence diplomacy frameworks and our intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities (so vital for advance warning), one would expect defence planners in modern Singapore not to leave the Lion City caught with its pants down.
At the same time, our neighbours need - indeed deserve - a strong and enduring level of engagement that ensures Singapore's strategy of military deterrence is never misconstrued or miscommunicated (perhaps deliberately, by foreign politicians looking for a bogeyman) as one of a latent adventuresome military power.
For deterrence to be calibrated well, a professional audience needs to understand and appreciate that all contingencies pertaining to the use of the SAF's full force potential have been addressed.
Civilians in the line of fire
Foremost amongst these is the basic question of what will happen to civilians in the AO.
Our war games such as Forging Sabre are impressive because the munitions unloaded on simulated air base complexes and enemy formations in the field leave no doubt that the war machines work as advertised.
But every large scale war game - B/Conqueror, B/Gladiator, F/Knight, Orion, Ulysses and so on - is played without the presence of the million-plus civilians in the AO and the tens of thousands of vehicles that could conceivably choke off roads and highways (i.e. your key avenues of approach). Having a handful of soldiers play civilians just doesn't do. That is a Peace Support Operation kind of gig that would be eclipsed by the real thing. Bear that in mind.
The more interesting war games are said to take place on advanced computers that can simulate what-if situations to a frightening level of detail and realism, giving Ministry of Defence and SAF planners the thought-drivers they need at the level of grand strategy, a dress rehearsal of how situations might unfold, how operations could be hampered.
If you can imagine the application of computer simulations in medical science which show how individual rogue cells multiply, the same can be done to mimic the movement of masses of people and perhaps even individual vehicles in a parallel universe where the doomsday machine has been unleashed and all hell breaks loose.
It is heartening to guess that there is an aspect of Forging Sabre the SAF will never talk about openly - because every defence forces needs its trade secrets.
It is reassuring to nurse the opinion that Civil Military Relations (CMR) have matured in the SAF to such an extent that a number of battalions which is not small have been earmarked for dedicated CMR duty. Remember that every battalion that performs CMR is one battalion less on the front line. And this calculus illustrates how seriously the SAF views the issue of non-combatants in an AO.
Looking at how the Malaysian military may look at the same issue, it is abundantly clear to this blog that the Malaysian military is not stupid - to put it bluntly.
Any Malaysian military professional who overlays the line of march for a manoeuvre warfare exercise like Wallaby onto home ground can guesstimate the issues the SAF would face (with some degree of accuracy, one might add).
Strategic burden
Indeed, one Malaysian military professional has indicated to this blog that the population in Johor will not be evacuated in the event of a period of tension, even when Code Yellow is about to turn Red, but left in place as a strategic burden to the occupying force. In peace and war, civilians in Johor will need food and water, power for their homes and offices and a sewer system that works. War or no war, people will fall sick (which means clinics and hospitals need to remain operational), refuse needs to be cleared, law and order maintained in a city that even in peacetime has a tough time keeping criminal elements in check. In addition to all this, civilians in war will need some sense when the madness will subside. If the occupying force cannot provide the succour Johor residents will need, you can bet your last dollar that civil disorder will break out.
This is why some Singapore watchers looked closely at how the Republic handled the Little India Riot. Was the response decisive? How much damage and how many injuries did authorities suffer at the hands of the rioters? Elevate the intensity of the Little India Riot to an occupied city which erupts into a riot, can Singapore cope? You wonder...
This strategy of trading space for time (time to mobilise the ATM, time to prepare for a decisive encounter) could explain why Peninsular Malaysia's southernmost state of Johor seems under-defended with only the ATM 3rd Division holding the fort versus three SAF Divisions (3, 6, 9 Div), two Army Operational Reserve Divisions ((21, 25 Div) and a People's Defence Force formation (2 PDF).
The odds may be against it but bear in mind the 3rd Division (the Malaysian one, not the SAF's 3rd Div at Jurong Camp) is unique in several ways that indicate Malaysian defence planners realise why the division is at the sharp end of the stick: 3 Div was the first Malaysian army division conferred Combined Arms status and is the only Malaysian army division equipped with counter-battery capability (ARTHUR weapon locating radars).
That Johor appears under-defended does not imply the Angkatan Tentera Malaysia (Malaysian Armed Forces) is clueless how to defend home ground.
Indeed, the lack of vigorous opposition or attempts to build a frontline right at the Johor coast may signal that the Malaysian military has other cards up its sleeve.
Achieving a military break in and a break through are two different things altogether. The Malaysian military professional knows this all too well. *Respect*
It was the first time the armed forces operated with everything "on" (radars, comms equipment and sensors) at the same time (and already the friction was beginning to show).
It was the first time the soldiers had crossed into a foreign country without getting their passports stamped.
It was the first time the Motorised Infantry battalion travelled with full fuel, full combat load of ammo and full ballistic protection (including hard plates for LBV) and with a pair of Apache attack helicopters flying top cover, wall-to-wall rockets and Hellfire missiles.
It was clear to even the least defence-aware citizen soldier in the battalion that the shit had hit the fan, the button had been pressed and the balloon had gone up. This was it.
The crossing unfolded unexpectedly well with no opposition encountered. The Ops cell in the Division Strike Centre was cheered by the speed of movement, aided by the new 70-tonne capable waterjet-propelled landing craft that helped the Army walk on water.
But no plan survives first contact with the enemy. And this age-old mantra replayed itself in the minds of some DSC staff officers as the operation gained traction exactly as it had been tried out a gazillion times during war games.
The Commando team sent across to secure the landing point reported that the only opposition they encountered comprised two patrol cars from the state police, with three policemen and one policewoman slouched against their cars, arms crossed and firearms holstered. They showed up at the landing point almost on cue, like they knew how the scenario would be played out so predictably.
As the Commandos radioed back for instructions in this unscripted shoot/don't shoot situation, the police kept a watchful eye on the intruders but stayed their ground.
It was have been so easy to end the stalemate. Two shots each, double tap, right in the head for a brain stem kill and they would all be dead before their bodies slumped to the ground.
But the DSC had other ideas. What had failed at a state-to-state, grand strategic level would now be played out (successfully) at the tactical level of small unit operations- the delicate art of negotiation.
A Commando officer stepped forward, head to toe the atypical special forces operative with all the gear one would expect for a hot-war situation, covered by intense-looking members of the landing team who continued to play soldier even as the police maintained a look of absolute nonchalance, disinterest and pity as the soldier boys did their thing.
The DSC was told the state police would not interfere with the military operation. But as the state had not been cleared of civilians, they were duty bound to ensure civilian safety on roads and in residential areas. On this point, the police would not budge.
And so, Day 1 of the operation saw an uneasy, indeed unusual and unexpected armistice between the invaders and the state police in the area of operations.
When the convoy was ready to move, it travelled in combat march order on the highway with a ridiculous front scout comprising one state police car whose blue and red strobes on the light bar blinked energetically and incessantly. Hazard lights on, sirens blaring at regular intervals and with windows wound down for shouted instructions to the curious motorist who stopped or slowed down to watch the convoy, the police car did a stellar job clearing the road ahead of civilian traffic.
Officers watching imagery from the mini UAV that accompanied the convoy would later comment the police car looked like a sheep dog herding the mass of civilian traffic away from the convoy's line of march.
Overhead, the Apaches continued their elliptical orbit from front to rear of the convoy; the steady, onward movement of their racetrack flight path broadcasting to all interested observers the general line of advance of the war machines they sheltered.
The breakaway, when it came, was unannounced and unexpected and the police officers in the lead vehicle took some time to notice that the lead 8x8 in the convoy had halted.
As the cops alighted from their vehicle, a group of soldiers could be seen giving their attention to the metal central road divider. A tool of some sort (circular saw) produced a shower of sparks and seconds later, the sound of tortured metal being chewed down by the power tool was heard by the police officers.
The soldiers in the leading 8x8 had opened their hatches and had binoculars trained on the police car. In front of their hatch, the overhead weapon system trained left to right in a regular rhythm that left observers no doubt that the gun was manned, watchful and ready to fire. With the barrier shorn down, soldiers were seen moving a broken piece of divider away, like ants carrying away a twig.
One by one, the 8x8s gunned their idle engines into life and moved off, each 8x8 emitting a tell-tale puff of smoke down the line as each driver brought their vehicle to Drive mode and engines strained to get the stationary infantry carrier vehicles moving again. The 8x8s disappeared on the laterite road that led into a sprawling plantation whose cash crops were planted some 4 metres apart.
Soon, the estate had swallowed the length of the convoy and the second state police car (it brought up the rear) made its appearance, light bar winking and signal light flashing as it attempted to follow the battalion. Even at that distance, one did not need subtitles to decipher the game of charades played between the soldiers who manned the crossing point and the second police car.
Assault rifles held up at shoulder level pointing at the car with an outstretched palm meant: Stop immediately or we fire.
That same outstretched palm moving vigorously into motion, shooeing the car away could only mean: Stay away.
The soldiers and one 8x8 stayed at the head of the dirt road as the battalion wound its way north, with the two Apaches tethered to the convoy maintaining their faithful aerial watch.
The combat route was open for business.
When a professional audience studies war games such as Forging Sabre, they will look beyond the scenario scripted and kinetic operations executed.
At the level of grand strategy, several questions may spring to mind:
1. Will Singapore's leadership have the guts to pull the trigger for the scenario played out?
2. Will the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) be ready and able to execute the deed?
3. How realistic are the war games when applied in the projected area of operations (AO)?
With the amount of resources that have been invested in our defence diplomacy frameworks and our intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities (so vital for advance warning), one would expect defence planners in modern Singapore not to leave the Lion City caught with its pants down.
At the same time, our neighbours need - indeed deserve - a strong and enduring level of engagement that ensures Singapore's strategy of military deterrence is never misconstrued or miscommunicated (perhaps deliberately, by foreign politicians looking for a bogeyman) as one of a latent adventuresome military power.
For deterrence to be calibrated well, a professional audience needs to understand and appreciate that all contingencies pertaining to the use of the SAF's full force potential have been addressed.
Civilians in the line of fire
Foremost amongst these is the basic question of what will happen to civilians in the AO.
Our war games such as Forging Sabre are impressive because the munitions unloaded on simulated air base complexes and enemy formations in the field leave no doubt that the war machines work as advertised.
But every large scale war game - B/Conqueror, B/Gladiator, F/Knight, Orion, Ulysses and so on - is played without the presence of the million-plus civilians in the AO and the tens of thousands of vehicles that could conceivably choke off roads and highways (i.e. your key avenues of approach). Having a handful of soldiers play civilians just doesn't do. That is a Peace Support Operation kind of gig that would be eclipsed by the real thing. Bear that in mind.
The more interesting war games are said to take place on advanced computers that can simulate what-if situations to a frightening level of detail and realism, giving Ministry of Defence and SAF planners the thought-drivers they need at the level of grand strategy, a dress rehearsal of how situations might unfold, how operations could be hampered.
If you can imagine the application of computer simulations in medical science which show how individual rogue cells multiply, the same can be done to mimic the movement of masses of people and perhaps even individual vehicles in a parallel universe where the doomsday machine has been unleashed and all hell breaks loose.
It is heartening to guess that there is an aspect of Forging Sabre the SAF will never talk about openly - because every defence forces needs its trade secrets.
It is reassuring to nurse the opinion that Civil Military Relations (CMR) have matured in the SAF to such an extent that a number of battalions which is not small have been earmarked for dedicated CMR duty. Remember that every battalion that performs CMR is one battalion less on the front line. And this calculus illustrates how seriously the SAF views the issue of non-combatants in an AO.
Looking at how the Malaysian military may look at the same issue, it is abundantly clear to this blog that the Malaysian military is not stupid - to put it bluntly.
Any Malaysian military professional who overlays the line of march for a manoeuvre warfare exercise like Wallaby onto home ground can guesstimate the issues the SAF would face (with some degree of accuracy, one might add).
Strategic burden
Indeed, one Malaysian military professional has indicated to this blog that the population in Johor will not be evacuated in the event of a period of tension, even when Code Yellow is about to turn Red, but left in place as a strategic burden to the occupying force. In peace and war, civilians in Johor will need food and water, power for their homes and offices and a sewer system that works. War or no war, people will fall sick (which means clinics and hospitals need to remain operational), refuse needs to be cleared, law and order maintained in a city that even in peacetime has a tough time keeping criminal elements in check. In addition to all this, civilians in war will need some sense when the madness will subside. If the occupying force cannot provide the succour Johor residents will need, you can bet your last dollar that civil disorder will break out.
This is why some Singapore watchers looked closely at how the Republic handled the Little India Riot. Was the response decisive? How much damage and how many injuries did authorities suffer at the hands of the rioters? Elevate the intensity of the Little India Riot to an occupied city which erupts into a riot, can Singapore cope? You wonder...
This strategy of trading space for time (time to mobilise the ATM, time to prepare for a decisive encounter) could explain why Peninsular Malaysia's southernmost state of Johor seems under-defended with only the ATM 3rd Division holding the fort versus three SAF Divisions (3, 6, 9 Div), two Army Operational Reserve Divisions ((21, 25 Div) and a People's Defence Force formation (2 PDF).
The odds may be against it but bear in mind the 3rd Division (the Malaysian one, not the SAF's 3rd Div at Jurong Camp) is unique in several ways that indicate Malaysian defence planners realise why the division is at the sharp end of the stick: 3 Div was the first Malaysian army division conferred Combined Arms status and is the only Malaysian army division equipped with counter-battery capability (ARTHUR weapon locating radars).
That Johor appears under-defended does not imply the Angkatan Tentera Malaysia (Malaysian Armed Forces) is clueless how to defend home ground.
Indeed, the lack of vigorous opposition or attempts to build a frontline right at the Johor coast may signal that the Malaysian military has other cards up its sleeve.
Achieving a military break in and a break through are two different things altogether. The Malaysian military professional knows this all too well. *Respect*